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CS2 weapon usage over time: the rifle that changed hands four times

Aug 2, 202612 min read
CS2 weapon usage over time: the rifle that changed hands four times

Bottom line: People have been posting "CS2 weapon usage" charts for nine years without ever saying what usage means. We measured two things that can be defined precisely, kill share and shots fired, across 5,897 top-tier matches and 1.94 million kills from 2021 to mid-2026. The AK-47 has not moved in six years. The M4 platform has changed hands four times. The Desert Eagle lost 57% of its share of kills and almost nobody noticed. Every figure here is computed from the EsportsOdds CS2 data API as of 2 August 2026.

The question nobody answered

Ask what weapon is most used in professional Counter-Strike and you will find charts going back to 2017. Ask what "used" means and the trail goes cold. The most-upvoted version of this chart drew a comment asking whether usage meant kills, time equipped, purchases at round start, or shots fired. It was never answered. The author of a later attempt said in his own thread that he did not know how the number he was plotting had been calculated.

That is not a small gap. Those four definitions disagree with each other, sometimes by an order of magnitude, and the disagreement is the interesting part.

So this piece measures two things that have unambiguous definitions:

  • Kill share: what percentage of all kills a weapon accounts for.
  • Shots-fired share: what percentage of all bullets leaving guns came from it.

Three headline figures describing the dataset: 5,897 top-tier professional matches, 1.94 million recorded kills, and 45.2 million recorded shots fired.

One scope limitation belongs up front rather than in a footnote. Our weapon data is per-match aggregates, not parsed demo files, so this measures kill output and shots fired, not pick rate or time held. If a gun gets bought more often but kills at the same rate, nothing here will catch it.

A second one matters just as much. Every figure below is restricted to S and A-tier events, and the long arc is restricted to S-tier only. That is not fussiness. Tier composition in our corpus swings violently: 2021 is 85.5% S-tier matches, while 2023 through 2026 runs 65% to 83% B-tier. An all-tier six-year trend line would mostly be measuring which tournaments happened to run that year.

The rifle that changed hands four times

The M4 is the CT-side rifle, and it comes in two versions: the suppressed M4A1-S and the louder, cheaper-per-bullet M4A4. Teams pick one. Almost nobody splits.

A single trend line on a fixed 0-100% scale showing the M4A1-S share of all M4-platform kills in S and A tier professional Counter-Strike, by quarter from early 2021 to mid-2026, with a dashed 50% reference line. The line starts at 7.0% in early 2021 when the M4A4 was almost universal, climbs to 91.8% by the fourth quarter of 2021, holds above 94% through 2022, drops sharply to 58.9% in the first quarter of 2023, recovers to 87.2% by early 2024, drifts down through 2025 around 78 to 82%, and falls again to 52.8% by the second quarter of 2026.

Four reversals in five and a half years. In early 2021 the M4A1-S took 7.0% of M4-platform kills, meaning the M4A4 was near-universal. By the last quarter of 2021 that had inverted to 91.8%, and it held above 94% through all of 2022. The first quarter of 2023 knocked it back to 58.9%. It climbed again to 87.2% by early 2024, drifted through the high seventies for two years, and has now fallen to 52.8%.

That last move is the one covered in our analysis of the March 2026 reload update, which found the AWP unchanged and the M4A1-S collapsing instead. What that piece could not show, because it only looked at one patch window, is that the M4 has been doing this for years. The current swing is the fourth, not the first, and it is the second largest. The 2021 inversion was bigger.

Provisionally, July 2026 sits at 49.2%, which would put the M4A4 ahead for the first time since 2021. That is one partial month of data and should be treated as a signal rather than a result.

The gun that never moved

Set the two eras side by side and rank every weapon by how much its share of kills changed.

Ranked horizontal bars diverging from zero, showing each weapon's change in share of all kills between the CS era and the CS2 era in S and A tier professional matches, in percentage points. Risers: M4A1-S plus 3.34, Galil AR plus 1.35, MP9 plus 1.16, Glock-18 plus 1.14, Tec-9 plus 0.59, MAC-10 plus 0.25, USP-S plus 0.15. Fallers: AK-47 minus 0.24, FAMAS minus 0.60, Desert Eagle minus 1.87, AWP minus 2.12, M4A4 minus 2.15.

The AK-47 sits at minus 0.24 percentage points. It is the most-used weapon in the game by a wide margin, it survived an engine replacement and a format change, and its share of kills is statistically the same on both sides. Every argument about Counter-Strike's balance over this period happened around a gun that did not move.

The eras here come from the game_version field on each match rather than a calendar cutoff, which matters more than it sounds. CS and CS2 overlap in our data for about four weeks, and that overlap turns out to be useful.

Four weeks when both games were played at once

CS2 replaced CS on 27 September 2023, but the professional calendar did not switch overnight. For roughly a month, some events were still finishing on CS while others had already moved. Both were being played, by professionals, in the same weeks.

Grouped vertical bars comparing three weapon measures between CS matches and CS2 matches played in the same window, 1 October to 1 November 2023, restricted to B-tier events so the two groups are tier-matched. The AWP took 12.11% of kills in the CS matches against 9.41% in the CS2 matches. The Desert Eagle took 3.10% against 2.51%. Submachine guns took 4.45% against 5.27%.

Same weeks, same tier, same teams in many cases, and the AWP takes 12.11% of kills in one game and 9.41% in the other. The Desert Eagle drops by roughly a fifth. Submachine guns go the other way.

This is the cleanest comparison available anywhere in the dataset, because it removes the calendar. Whatever changed was not a seasonal drift or a shift in which tournaments were running.

Checking it against years when nothing happened

A break that lands where you expected it is exactly the kind of finding that deserves a control. So we ran the identical calendar split in two neighbouring years, both of which had no version change at all.

Grouped vertical bars showing the AWP's share of all kills before and after 27 September in three separate years, S and A tier. In 2022, a year with no version change, the AWP moved from 11.20% before to 11.24% after. In 2023, the year Counter-Strike 2 replaced CS, it moved from 11.86% to 9.82%. In 2024, again with no version change, it moved from 10.36% to 9.95%.

In 2022 the AWP moved by four hundredths of a percentage point across the same dates. In 2024 it moved by four tenths. In 2023 it moved by 2.04 points, roughly five times the larger of the two control years.

The pistol share behaved differently and is worth flagging as a negative result. It rose 1.44 points across the 2023 split, which looks meaningful until you see that it moved 1.16 points in the opposite direction across the 2022 control. That shift is not separable from ordinary drift, so we are not claiming it.

The AWP was already sliding

The October 2023 drop is real, but it is a step down inside a decline that had already been running for two years.

A vertical bar chart of the AWP's share of all kills in S and A tier professional matches, by quarter from early 2021 to mid-2026. Bars scale from zero. The AWP holds between 12.3 and 13.7% through 2021, declines through 2022 to about 11.3%, holds near 11.3 to 11.8% through the first three quarters of 2023, then drops to 9.6% in the fourth quarter of 2023 and bottoms at 9.19% in the first quarter of 2024, the highlighted bar. It then climbs back gradually to 10.9% by the second quarter of 2026.

The AWP was taking 13.3% of kills at the start of 2021 and 11.8% by the third quarter of 2023, before anything changed. Then it fell to 9.60% and bottomed at 9.19% in the first quarter of 2024. Monthly, the step is sharper still: 11.78% in September 2023, 9.34% in October.

It has been climbing back ever since, reaching 10.89% by the second quarter of 2026. Three years on, it has recovered most of the drop but not all of it, and it has never returned to where it was in 2021.

The weapon that actually collapsed

The AWP gets the arguments. The Desert Eagle got the damage.

Ranked horizontal bars diverging from zero, showing how much each weapon group's share of all kills changed in relative terms between 2021 and 2026, in S-tier professional matches only. Submachine guns rose 11.3%. The AK-47 fell 1.4% and all pistols together fell 1.5%, both effectively unchanged. The AWP fell 16.3%. The Desert Eagle fell 57.2%, by far the largest decline of any weapon.

In S-tier matches only, the tightest control available for tournament mix, the Desert Eagle went from 5.10% of all kills in 2021 to 1.97% in 2024 and sits at 2.18% now. That is a 57% reduction in its share of kills, the largest decline of any weapon in the corpus, and it happened across two separate step changes rather than one dramatic patch.

Over the same period and the same tier, the AK-47 moved 1.4% and all pistols together moved 1.5%. Submachine guns went the other way, up 11.3%.

What a kill actually costs

Kill share and shots-fired share are not the same measurement, and the gap between them is where the AWP stops looking like a rifle.

Horizontal ranked bars showing how many kills each weapon returns per 100 shots fired, in S and A tier CS2-era professional matches. The AWP is far ahead at 42.58 kills per 100 shots, highlighted. The Desert Eagle follows at 9.49, the USP-S at 6.09, the AK-47 at 5.05, the M4A1-S at 4.71, the M4A4 at 4.59, the Glock-18 and MP9 at 4.17 each, and the Galil AR at 4.07.

The AWP converts 42.58 kills per 100 shots. The AK-47 converts 5.05. In CS2-era S and A-tier matches the AWP accounts for 11.26% of all kills from 1.43% of all shots fired, roughly eight times more lethal per trigger pull than the rifle that dominates the kill charts.

This is why the definition question was never idle. On kill share the AK is the most-used weapon in Counter-Strike and it is not close. On shots fired it is even more dominant, at 42.08% of every bullet. On kills per shot it is fourth, behind a sniper rifle and two pistols.

Where the field sits now

Team by team, across S and A-tier matches in 2026, AWP reliance spans a wider range than you might expect from teams playing the same game.

Horizontal ranked bars showing the AWP's share of each team's kills in S and A tier matches during 2026, for the 24 teams with at least 25 such matches. FURIA leads at 14.00%, followed by PARIVISION at 13.38% and Falcons at 13.37%. The MongolZ sit at 12.44% and Vitality at 10.66%. FUT are lowest at 8.55%, with TYLOO at 8.59% and 3DMAX at 8.83%.

FURIA put 14.00% of their kills through the AWP; FUT put 8.55%. The M4 question splits the field even harder. Aurora still route 87.1% of their M4 kills through the M4A1-S, while Vitality are down at 29.2% and 9z at 31.8%, effectively converted to the M4A4 while much of the field has not moved.

What this does and does not show

Four limitations, stated plainly, because they change how much weight these numbers carry.

Two things changed on the same day, and we cannot separate them. CS2 arrived and the match format moved from MR15 to MR12 simultaneously. In our data CS never played a single MR12 match, and only about a dozen CS2 matches ever ran MR15. The two changes are collinear. Anyone telling you the engine did this, or that the format did it, is going beyond what this data can support.

The map pool changed too. Restricting to single-map matches on the same map, the AWP drop shows up clearly on Ancient and Mirage but barely on Inferno, and several maps have no meaningful CS sample. Map composition is a partial explanation we cannot fully remove.

The P250 is excluded from every chart here. Its recorded kills fall to 1.3% of the CS rate across the version boundary, while the AK-47, as a reference point, sits at 77.1%, which is roughly what a shorter match format alone predicts. A pistol bought on most force-buys did not lose 99% of its kills. That is a gap in the underlying record, not a change in behaviour, and publishing it as a finding would have been wrong.

No patch attribution. We can date every turning point above precisely. We are deliberately not naming which update caused which, because we could not verify the patch notes against a primary source.

The short version

The AK-47 has held roughly 35% of professional kills for six years through an engine replacement, a format change, and four separate arguments about the CT rifle. The M4 has changed hands four times in the same period and is mid-swing again. The AWP's decline started well before CS2 and has partly reversed since. The Desert Eagle lost more ground than any of them and generated none of the discussion.

For how the round economy shapes which of these guns ever gets bought, see the CS2 economy explained; for a static snapshot of where weapon shares sit today, see CS2 weapon meta by the numbers; and for what one specific patch did and did not do, see the AWP nerf that wasn't. The methodology behind every number here is documented in how we build our data.